By TherapyNearMe.com.au | August 2025

TL;DR: The Australian Government has announced a shift so that many children with mild–moderate developmental delay or autism will be supported outside the NDIS through a new “Thriving Kids” foundational supports program (announced August 2025; staged implementation expected through mid‑2027). The aim is to reserve the NDIS for people with significant and enduring functional impairment, while improving mainstream and early supports for children who don’t need tier‑1 NDIS packages (NDIS Review, 2023; Government announcements, Aug 2025). Families should prepare by documenting functional needs, engaging with school‑ and health‑based supports, and understanding appeal rights under amended legislation (NDIS Amendment Act 2024). Early, high‑quality intervention remains crucial regardless of funding stream (BMJ meta‑analysis 2023; Cochrane 2018).

---

1) What exactly changed—and why now?

• Policy direction: The Independent NDIS Review (Dec 2023) recommended a continuum of mainstream, foundational, and specialist supports so that not every developmental concern relies on the NDIS (NDIS Review Final Report, 2023).
• Legislative context: The NDIS Amendment (Getting the NDIS Back on Track No. 1) Act 2024 commenced 3 Oct 2024, updating how access, planning and transitions can be managed (Cth, 2024). The NDIA summarised the new laws in late 2024 (NDIA, 2024).
• 2025 announcement: In August 2025 the Federal Government announced “Thriving Kids”—a $2b foundational supports program for children with mild–moderate needs, aiming to divert or transition many children outside the NDIS over time, while reserving NDIS for higher, enduring support needs. The government flagged a mid‑2027 implementation horizon (The Guardian, 2025; AFR, 2025).
• Rationale: Rapid growth among child entrants (particularly with autism or developmental delay) has strained the scheme (NDIS Review, 2023). The government’s fiscal target is to slow annual scheme growth toward 5–6% (media briefings, 2025).

Key point: This is system redesign, not an assertion that children no longer need help. The intent is to provide appropriate early supports—just not always via the NDIS (NDIS Review, 2023; NDIA evidence reviews, 2024).

---

2) Will children be “removed” from the NDIS?

Public reporting uses strong language (“removed/diverted”), but the details matter:

• Existing participants: Government commentary indicates many current child participants will have supports reviewed; some may remain on NDIS if they meet functional impairment thresholds; others may transition to foundational supports as those services come online (The Guardian, 2025).
• New entrants (from 2026–2027): Children with mild–moderate needs may be directed first to foundational supports (schools, community health, short‑term early intervention) rather than tier‑1 NDIS packages (NDIS Review, 2023).
• Eligibility principle unchanged: The NDIS remains for significant, permanent disability with substantial functional impact—not for diagnosis alone (NDIS Act; Amendment Act 2024; NDIA, 2024).

Bottom line: Some children—particularly those with Level 1 autism or milder functional impact—may be supported outside the NDIS once foundational options exist. Children with substantial functional limitations should still qualify.

---

3) What are “foundational supports” and will they be enough?

The Review defined foundational supports as government‑funded services outside the NDIS to meet lower‑intensity or earlier needs—e.g., navigation, parent training, group‑based therapies, school‑embedded supports, and early childhood interventions (NDIS Review, 2023). The National Autism Strategy 2025–2031 also emphasises inclusive, whole‑of‑life supports (Australian Government, 2025).

Pros:

• Earlier reach (services via schools/primary care), reduced diagnostic bottlenecks, potential equity for families who cannot navigate NDIS planning.
• Continuity with education and primary health, not solely tied to a plan cycle.

Risks:

• Resourcing gap during transition—if foundational systems are under‑funded, families could face service deserts.
• Intensity mismatch—group or brief programs may not meet needs of children who require intensive therapy.

What to watch: Transparent funding levels, eligibility, workforce capacity, and clear pathways between foundational supports and the NDIS for children whose needs escalate.

---

4) What does the science say about early intervention?

• Early intervention helps—but effects vary: A BMJ umbrella review (2023) found small‑to‑moderate average benefits across early interventions for autistic children, with substantial heterogeneity and variable study quality (Sandbank et al., 2023).
• EIBI/ABA‑based programs: Meta‑analyses report moderate‑to‑large effects on IQ and moderate effects on adaptive behaviour when delivered intensively and with fidelity (Hughes et al., 2009; Reichow, 2012; Cochrane, 2018). Real‑world effects may be smaller than trial settings (O’Flaherty et al., 2025).
• Parent‑mediated & naturalistic developmental behavioural interventions (NDBIs): Evidence suggests benefits for social communication and caregiver interaction quality, typically with lower intensity (BMJ, 2023).
• Cost‑effectiveness: Economic evaluations indicate potential long‑term gains, but evidence quality is mixed and model‑dependent (Synergies/PC, 2017; JADD scoping review, 2023).

Implication: If children shift outside the NDIS, foundational supports must still enable timely, needs‑based, and sufficiently intense intervention where indicated, with clear escalation pathways.

---

5) Likely impact on families and mental health

• Caregiver stress: Parents of autistic children show higher average stress than other parents; abrupt service changes can worsen stress and financial strain (Hayes & Watson, 2013).
• Service navigation burden: Moving parts across education, health and community increase administrative load; neutral service navigation is essential (NDIS Review, 2023).
• Equity lens: Families in rural/low‑SES areas risk reduced access unless foundational supports are properly funded and distributed.

Protective factors: Transparent timelines, grandparenting arrangements, independent navigation, and school‑based supports can cushion transition impacts.

---

6) Practical steps for families (2025–2027)

1. Document functional impact (not just diagnosis): school reports, therapy goals, ADL checklists, communication and behaviour logs.
2. Track outcomes with brief measures (e.g., Vineland‑3 domains via therapists; teacher checklists) to demonstrate response to intervention.
3. Engage school supports: speak with learning support and wellbeing staff; ask about funding streams attached to the new foundational model once released.
4. Coordinate with your GP/paediatrician: ensure a clear plan for referrals, pain/sleep/mental health needs, and (if available) Medicare items for developmental checks (as proposed in media briefings).
5. Know your rights: read the NDIA’s 2024 law changes summary; if reviewed, you can seek internal review and, where appropriate, appeal to the AAT equivalent (NDIA, 2024; Cth, 2024).
6. Mind caregiver wellbeing: seek peer support, respite, and psychology where needed; early supports are not only for the child—parent capacity‑building improves outcomes.

---

7) Ethical and clinical bottom line

• A diagnosis alone should not guarantee nor preclude support. Function, participation and individual need must drive decisions.
• Foundational supports must be real and resourced, not rhetorical. Without genuine provision, families could lose access to effective early help.
• Keep the NDIS for significant, enduring disability—with a fast lane back to the scheme if foundational supports prove insufficient.

---

Keywords

NDIS autism 2025 changes, removing kids with autism from NDIS, Thriving Kids program Australia, foundational supports NDIS Review, early intervention autism evidence, NDIS Amendment Act 2024, autism Level 1 NDIS eligibility, Australian autism policy 2025, school‑based supports autism Australia, NDIA early childhood approach

---

References

Australian policy and legislation

• Australian Government (2025) National Autism Strategy 2025–2031. Canberra: Department of Health, Disability and Ageing. Available at: https://www.health.gov.au/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).
• Commonwealth of Australia (2024) National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Getting the NDIS Back on Track No. 1) Act 2024, No. 81, 2024. Available at: https://www.legislation.gov.au/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).
• National Disability Insurance Agency (2024) ‘Changes to NDIS legislation (from 3 October 2024)’. Available at: https://www.ndis.gov.au/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).
• NDIS Review Panel (2023) NDIS Review Final Report (and Guide for people with disability and their families). Canberra: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Available at: https://www.ndisreview.gov.au/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).

2025 announcements (media reporting of government policy)

• The Guardian (2025) ‘Children with autism to be diverted off NDIS under $2bn program announced by Albanese government’, 20 Aug 2025. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).
• Australian Financial Review (2025) ‘Children with mild autism removed from NDIS to fix the budget’, 20 Aug 2025. Available at: https://www.afr.com/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).

NDIA and evidence on early supports

• NDIA (2024) ‘Evidence review: Early interventions for children with autism’. Canberra: NDIA Data & Insights. Available at: https://dataresearch.ndis.gov.au/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).

Intervention effectiveness and economics

• Sandbank, M. et al. (2023) ‘Autism intervention meta‑analysis of early childhood studies (Project AIM): updated systematic review and secondary analysis’, BMJ, 383:e076733.
• Reichow, B. (2012) ‘Overview of meta‑analyses on early intensive behavioural intervention’, Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 42, pp. 512–520.
• Hughes, C. et al. (2009) ‘Meta‑analysis of Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention for children with autism’, Journal of Intellectual & Developmental Disability, 34(2), pp. 95–104.
• Cochrane Collaboration (2018) ‘Early intensive behavioural intervention (EIBI) for young children with autism spectrum disorder’. Available at: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).
• O’Flaherty, M. et al. (2025) ‘Exploring the effectiveness of community‑based intensive early intervention for autistic children in Australia (2014–2024)’, Unpublished observational report, AEIOU Foundation.
• Synergies Economic Consulting for Productivity Commission (2017) ‘Cost‑benefit analysis of early intervention for children with developmental disabilities (Autism cohort attachment)’. Available at: https://www.pc.gov.au/ (accessed 21 Aug 2025).
• JADD (2023) ‘Economic evaluation of early interventions for autistic children: a scoping review’, Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 53, pp. 1–17.

Family wellbeing

• Hayes, S.A. and Watson, S.L. (2013) ‘The impact of parenting stress: A meta‑analysis comparing parents of autistic and non‑autistic children’, Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 43, pp. 629–642.

Note: Details of Thriving Kids (scope, eligibility, timelines) are subject to intergovernmental design and may evolve. Families should check NDIA and government updates regularly and seek individual advice from their clinicians, planners or legal services where needed.