Supporting People at Risk of Losing NDIS Access or Funding
A free national transition, advocacy and referral guide for NDIS participants, families, carers, clinicians, advocates, support coordinators and community organisations.
Government modelling projects that approximately 241,000 existing participants may exit the NDIS by mid-2031 under the reform assumptions, with around 110,000 potential entrants expected to use other pathways instead. These figures are projections—not a list of named people, not an immediate removal on passage of legislation and not a prediction of any individual outcome.
- Prepared by: Therapy Near Me
- Edition: National edition, Version 1.2
- Information current to: 19 August 2026
- Format: Free digital guide, 22-page PDF
- Geographic coverage: Australia
- Status: Independent public-interest resource
Therapy Near Me is not affiliated with the NDIA or Australian Government. NDIS branding visible in the supplied illustrative image does not indicate endorsement. This guide provides general information and does not replace legal, clinical or financial advice.
Current-status notice
Important: check the current legal and implementation status before relying on dates.
The Senate passed the Bill with amendments on 18 August 2026. At the guide's research cut-off on 19 August 2026, the Parliament tracker displayed a final text as passed by both Houses; Royal Assent was not confirmed in the sources checked. Implementation dates may depend on Royal Assent, commencement provisions, NDIS Rules, ministerial instruments, consultation and operational readiness.
Before distributing or relying on this guide, check the Parliament bill tracker, the Federal Register of Legislation, the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing and current NDIA guidance.
What the 241,000 figure means
The widely reported 241,000 figure comes from high-level government modelling of projected participant exits across the reform period. The modelling indicates approximately 241,000 people who are participants before the new access arrangements may no longer be receiving NDIS supports by mid-2031. It also projects roughly 110,000 fewer new entrants than under the no-reform scenario.
The model compares a projected NDIS population of about 600,000 people in 2031 after the reforms with roughly 940,000 under a no-reform projection. The difference is not the same as the number of current participants expected to exit because the model also includes new entrants over the period.
Departmental evidence described these figures as high-level assumptions developed before the final functional-capacity threshold, assessment instruments and implementation settings were settled. They should be used for system planning and preparedness—not to predict whether a particular participant will retain access.
What may change and when
The reforms are intended to be staged. A person may face funding pressure before the new access reassessments begin, and remaining an NDIS participant does not necessarily mean every current funding allocation will remain unchanged.
• Seven days after Royal Assent: proposed tighter criteria for unscheduled reassessments, record-retention requirements and related administrative changes begin.
• 1 October 2026: the Government intends progressive allocation resets for specified social, civic and community participation and Capacity Building — Daily Activities supports as relevant plans renew or are reassessed; Thriving Kids phase-in is intended to begin.
• 1 December 2026: claims are generally intended to be lodged within 90 days of service delivery.
• 1 February 2027: renewed plans are intended to have end dates, with unspent funds not rolling into the renewed plan.
• 1 April 2027 onward: progressive transition to new-framework planning and support-needs assessment.
• 1 January 2028: new functional-capacity access arrangements are intended to begin, with existing participants progressively reassessed over three years.
• 1 July 2028: support coordination is intended to transition from individual plan funding to a commissioned support-coordination and connection service.
Who may benefit from early preparation
The following factors can help organisations identify who may need earlier contact, evidence preparation or transition planning. They are triage indicators—not a basis for assuming that a person will lose access.
• Children and young people, particularly where autism or developmental delay is the primary disability.
• People with psychosocial, episodic, fluctuating or degenerative impairments.
• People in regional or remote communities and First Nations or culturally and linguistically diverse participants.
• People experiencing homelessness, hospital or institutional stays, unstable contact details or limited digital access.
• People with large social/community participation or Capacity Building — Daily Activities allocations.
• People relying on continuous care, high-intensity supports, complex behaviour support or customised technology.
• Participants with limited informal support or carers approaching burnout.
What to do after receiving an NDIS decision
A written decision, its date and its legal character determine the next step. Do not rely only on a phone summary.
• Obtain and save the complete written decision, reasons, current plan, relevant emails and the envelope or portal notification showing when it was received.
• Identify whether the issue is access, plan amount or category, provider availability, a rejected claim, delay, communication failure or provider conduct.
• Record the review deadline immediately. A reviewable NDIA decision generally has a three-month internal-review period.
• Assess immediate safety and identify supports that cannot stop without creating serious health, housing, personal-care, communication or safeguarding risk.
• Gather function-focused evidence and make confirmed warm referrals rather than handing the person a list of phone numbers.
• Name one lead person, one backup and a specific follow-up date.
URGENT SAFETY
Call Triple Zero on 000 if there is immediate danger. For crisis support call Lifeline on 13 11 14. For 24-hour health advice call healthdirect on 1800 022 222. Therapy Near Me is not a crisis or emergency response service.
Review and appeal rights
Many access and planning decisions are reviewable. A person generally has three months from receiving an NDIA decision to request an internal review. The request should identify the decision, explain the outcome sought and state why a different decision should be made. Evidence can include reports or letters explaining the disability and its day-to-day functional impact.
If the person remains dissatisfied after the internal review, an application to the Administrative Review Tribunal is generally due within 28 days. The Tribunal may consider a late application depending on the circumstances, but people should seek help promptly and should not assume an extension will be granted.
An internal review or Tribunal application does not necessarily pause the decision. Where implementation may cause serious harm, seek urgent legal or advocacy advice about available protective steps.
Building useful evidence
Useful evidence connects impairment to real-world function, support needs and foreseeable risk. It should be specific, current where possible and within the author's professional expertise.
• Describe the longitudinal course, including fluctuating or episodic impacts—not only presentation on one day.
• Use task-specific examples across communication, social interaction, learning, mobility, self-care and self-management.
• Explain what happens without support, how often support is required and what the support enables.
• Record appropriate treatments tried, response, barriers, risks and why further options may not materially change the impairment.
• Distinguish direct observation, information reported by the participant or others, clinical opinion and legal conclusions.
• Document service unavailability, unaffordability, waitlists, travel and cultural-safety barriers where relevant.
Alternative and bridge pathways
No health, education, employment, carer or community program should be described as a like-for-like replacement for the NDIS unless that is demonstrably true for the individual. Alternative systems have different eligibility rules, scope, costs, intensity, wait times and review mechanisms.
• Children: Thriving Kids as it becomes available, child and family health, paediatrics, Medicare Mental Health Kids Hubs, schools and early childhood services.
• Mental health: GP care, Mental Health Treatment Plans, Medicare Mental Health, Primary Health Network commissioned services and public/community mental health.
• Chronic conditions: GP chronic condition management arrangements and eligible Medicare allied-health services.
• Employment: Inclusive Employment Australia, JobAccess and workplace-adjustment pathways.
• Carers: Carer Gateway counselling, coaching, peer support and respite pathways where available.
• Practical crisis: Services Australia, Ask Izzy, housing, homelessness, food, financial and family-violence services.
• Education: reasonable adjustments and obligations that apply independently of NDIS status.
Warm-referral standard
1. Obtain informed consent and identify communication, language, interpreter and accessibility needs.
2. Contact the receiving service with the person present where possible.
3. Confirm scope, eligibility, price, wait time, access requirements and whether the referral has been accepted.
4. Record the named receiving contact and appointment or next action.
5. Create a backup plan if the service declines, delays or cannot safely meet the person's needs.
6. Follow up within 48 hours for urgent matters and within seven days for routine matters.
What organisations should do now
Organisations should prepare before individual transition requests arrive. The minimum standard is not merely sending information; it is ensuring the person understands what happens next, the receiving service has accepted the referral and a backup exists.
• Nominate an NDIS transition lead and backup.
• Train intake staff to distinguish access, plan, provider, claim and complaint problems.
• Create same-day routes for safety, homelessness, personal-care, medication and carer-collapse risks.
• Maintain a local service map with eligibility, cost, accessibility, current wait times and acceptance status.
• Offer a function-focused evidence prompt to clinicians, schools and support providers.
• Track de-identified rejected referrals, wait times, service gaps, crisis escalations and outcomes.
• Review the legal status, Rules and local replacement services before each public update.
Download the complete national guide
Supporting people at risk of losing NDIS access and funding (2026)
Download the free guide (PDF, 22 pages)View all Therapy Near Me research and resources
How to cite this guide
Recommended citation
Therapy Near Me. (2026). Supporting people at risk of losing NDIS access or funding: A national transition, advocacy and referral guide (Version 1.2). Therapy Near Me Pty Ltd. https://therapynearme.com.au/ndis-access-and-funding-changes-2026-guide/
Short attribution
Supporting People at Risk of Losing NDIS Access or Funding, prepared by Therapy Near Me.
Citation note
When reproducing government statistics or implementation dates, cite the original government or parliamentary source. Cite this guide when referring to Therapy Near Me's synthesis, transition protocol, evidence guidance, referral framework, checklists or recommendations.
Selected official sources shown on the page
- Parliament of Australia — Bill tracker
- Department of Health, Disability and Ageing — About the NDIS changes
- Department of Health, Disability and Ageing — Final Senate changes fact sheet
- Department of Health, Disability and Ageing — Reform timeline
- NDIS — How to request a review of a decision
- Administrative Review Tribunal — NDIS reviews
- ABC News — reporting on the departmental modelling of projected exits and diverted entrants
The complete guide contains 38 numbered sources and official links.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 241,000 figure mean 241,000 people will lose the NDIS immediately?
No. It is high-level government modelling of projected exits by mid-2031. It is not a published list of named participants and does not predict an individual outcome.
When are the new NDIS access arrangements intended to begin?
The new functional-capacity access arrangements are intended to begin from 1 January 2028, with existing participants progressively reassessed over three years. Dates may change and implementation details are still being developed.
Can funding change even if a person remains an NDIS participant?
Yes. Access status and plan funding are different decisions. A participant may remain in the Scheme while experiencing changes to funding amounts, categories or plan settings.
Are health, education or community services direct replacements for the NDIS?
Usually not. Other systems have different eligibility, intensity, cost, availability and review arrangements. Confirm that a referral is accepted and safe for the individual.
Can organisations distribute the guide?
Yes. The guide is intended for free, unchanged circulation with its version date, citation and disclaimer retained. Check for a newer version before redistribution.
How long does a person have to request an internal review?
A reviewable NDIA decision generally has a three-month internal-review period from receipt of the decision. The written decision should be checked immediately.
How long is there to apply to the Administrative Review Tribunal?
An ART application is generally due within 28 days after the NDIA internal-review decision. Seek help promptly if the deadline is approaching or has passed.
Does requesting a review automatically keep current funding in place?
Not necessarily. A review request does not automatically pause every decision. Seek urgent advocacy or legal advice if implementation may create serious harm.
What evidence is most useful?
Evidence should explain day-to-day function, support intensity, treatment history, longitudinal impacts, risks without support and task-specific examples. It should distinguish observation, reported information and professional opinion.
Is Therapy Near Me affiliated with the NDIA?
No. The guide is an independent public-interest resource and does not imply NDIA or Australian Government endorsement.
